The gradual downfall of the novel has been coming for years, and the age of generative AI is set to exacerbate that even further, as more and more platforms get flooded with AI junk, that, by definition, is derivative.

AI tools can only draw on existing data sources, so what you’re going to get is a regurgitation of things that have come before. Now, you could argue that, based on influences, everything is a reimagining of things that have come before it. But AI content is literally a reinterpretation of whatever inputs it has.

Match the declining quality (in broad terms) with a less engaged reading public (scrolling their phones when they have time instead of turning to books), and that sets a clear path for the decline of the novel. Which is why fewer literary works are selling, and we’re seeing fewer and fewer breakout literary sensations as a result.

But there is another impact here that’s less discussed, in the decline of films being adapted from books.

It used to be that new arthouse films would come out every other week, based on this or that novel. But these days, the only films getting a cinema release are big screen action stories, things that have been designed for large screen viewing, as opposed to being watched at home.

Which makes sense. These days, home cinema set-ups largely replicate the cinema experience for films that don’t rely on special effects, and no one’s buying tickets to movies that don’t have some sense of cinematic experience. But that also puts less emphasis on rights sales, and less opportunity for publishers to make money from selling books to filmmakers, which further reduces the impetus for them to concentrate on this element.

The hope had been that Netflix’s local content deals would revive this to some degree, and give more local authors an opportunity to see their literary works on the big screen. But that hasn’t happened. Netflix films are bad, with almost every one I’ve seen basically collapsing in on itself in the third act. Netflix has sought to give directors free reign to create what they want, but either their script selection hasn’t been up to scratch, or the directors need more oversight, as there are just not that many breakout hits in the app.

And that’s not just my opinion. Netflix released 589 originals in 2024, with 79 of them being films.

How many of them do you recall?

On average, Netflix productions receive lower audience ratings. Yet this is the key source of content, with Netflix being the biggest digital distributor, outside of YouTube (which doesn’t produce films) at present.

So again, the book-to-movie timeline has now been altered, to the point that this is not a viable or valuable pathway for most authors or publishers. Which reduces your opportunities even more, and hastens the fall of the novel.

In other words, if you want to get published these days, major publishers have less and less motivation to back your work, as the opportunities for monetization, through direct sales and rights deals, are reducing day by day.